Foreign Policy magazine and the Fund for Peace have recently released their 2008 failed states index, and the good news is that Sri Lanka came in at number 20. Congratulations all round people, sterling work.
How it works is that each country is scored from 1-10 (10 = bad) on twelve different indicators. The scores are added together to produce a total score for that country, and each country is then ranked on their overall total. Sri Lanka’s placing was achieved with a total score of 95.6 out of a possible 120.
Oooh, I know! Fun! You can rate everything online these days from films to football players – well here’s a chance to rate Sri Lanka’s descent into the dark ages. Below are the scores that the Fund for Peace gave out, see if you agree.
DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURES: 7.0 Too many people in too small areas, contributing to conflict. Sounds about right, I’d agree with 7.
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED PERSONS: 9.0 I can’t remember the figures, but it’s at least a couple of hundred thousand families. In a nation of only 20 million, that’s bad. Agreed.
GROUP GRIEVANCE: 9.8 As group grievances go, you’d have to admit this is a biggie.
HUMAN FLIGHT: 6.9 Don’t know much about this, let’s assume it’s a fair score.
UNEVEN DEVELOPMENT: 8.2 Same goes for this one, I’m assuming it’s fair.
ECONOMY: 6.0 Now this one I have a bone to pick with. Firstly, the data for this index was compiled from May to December 2007 and things have deteriorated since then. Second, the government is in debt up to its eyeballs to fund the war. Third, rice and petrol to name but two are fast becoming unaffordable for the average Sri Lankan, and inflation is running at over 20%. Fourth, these measures generally overestimate the importance of growth, especially in an economy whose good growth figures are a fiction maintained by the government simply printing money. This score needs to be bumped up to at least a 7.5.
DELEGITIMIZATION OF STATE: 9.2 Well, it depends who and where you are. In the South there seems to be a hefty majority of people who still believe that the government is successfully representing them, and are willing to back the Rajapakses all the way. I’d drop this to an 8.5.
PUBLIC SERVICES: 6.6 The relatively low score looks fair. Public services are crap, but at least they exist. The state is still a massive employer.
HUMAN RIGHTS: 8.0 Again, I think this is a lowball. I’m no expert, but we’re talking about a country here where people are routinely terrorized both by the LTTE and their own government forces; where they are murdered, disappeared, intimidated; where they are blown up on buses and shelled out of their own homes; where children are forcibly recruited into terrorist armies; where journalists are targeted for reporting the truth; and where people are too scared to do anything about any of it. Make it an 8.5 at least.
SECURITY APPARATUS: 9.3 Militarization of society anyone? Shady militias? Criminal gangs masquerading as law enforcement? Strangely unaccountable security forces? Paramilitaries? All present and correct. Tick.
FACTIONALIZED ELITES: 9.5 Otherwise known as the “complete bastards have taken over my country, they are all trying to kill each other and they don’t give a flying fuck if they take me out too” index. No argument from me.
EXTERNAL INTERVENTION: 6.1 This score has to be low-ish because there are no peacekeepers or external forces on the ground. That said, the influence of both Tamil Nadu politics and of the LTTE’s global fundraising network shouldn’t be underestimated. Let’s bump this up a couple to 6.3, just for the sake of tinkering.
So by my count I’ve added 1.5 to the total, which would move Sri Lanka up four places into 16th spot, just behind North Korea. Who knows, we could make the top ten for 2009!
Now that would be something to celebrate while we’re sitting in Barefoot this time next year, surrounded by hand-woven silks, drinking ice tea and listening to the same shit jazz.
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