Premiership 08-09 gut-check.

ArseNole thinks we’ll win it. It’s refreshing to see a fellow gooner having a little faith.

Some fans either view success as something that can be bought, or something that you have a divine right to. Either way, you’re in danger of ending up a spoiled, joyless, arrogant son-of-a-bitch who can’t truly celebrate success when it comes your way because you don’t understand your own good fortune.  These types tend to be the ones spreading gloom around right now like a bad smell.

Arsenal have as good a chance as anybody.

It’s all relative of course, but Man Utd are weakened – Ronaldo will miss the start of the season even if he stays at Old Trafford, and he had an unprecedented season last year. They would not have come close to winning anything without him, and both he and the rest of the team will struggle to hit those heights again.  For sure it’s still one of Red Nose’s strongest squads, but my water tells me they’ll come up short.

On the other hand, with a new manager and new players in the form of Deco and Bosingwa, Chelsea look stronger than last term, especially if Drogba stays and is fit enough to see the season through. They have the proven winning mentality and the killer instinct. If I fear anyone, I fear the Chavs.

Liverpool, with the addition of Robbie Keane and a decent Italian left-back, continue to build a monster squad that has so far failed to be the sum of its parts. Their stubborn refusal to die in the big games is their main strength – as we found out to our cost – but this year they might finally succeed in marrying that with the consistency that will allow them to challenge for honours. There are signs that even Rafa is getting sick of rotation.  Also after their Euro win, one can sense a confidence in the Spanish camp that wasn’t there before.  Liverpool are the high-profile and therefore not-so-dark dark horse.  Call them the grey horse.  Although that means white, doesn’t it?  Never mind.

Turning to the Great White Satan, Spurs have lost Keane but gained Modric and Dos Santos. Berbatov may yet stay. Hutton is a great full-back. They also have King and Bale back from injury, and in Ramos, a very good manager who should be able to get the best out of his side – including underachievers like Woodgate. Gooners love to knock their chances, but Spurs simply can’t be as awful or as inconsistent as they were at various times last season, and they have to be in with a shout.

Of the rest, Portsmouth look the most promising, which probably means a mid-table finish.  Everton will continue to be Everton, stubbornly stalking the top four or five and picking off the weak.

And so to the lovely Arsenal.  Our strength as always these days is the marriage of our frighteningly talented young squad to Wenger’s philosophy of domination through possession, speed and fearlessness.  But we are surrounded by questions right now, ones that we won’t discover the answers to until the season is underway.  Here are five of the issues I’m most interested in:

1. Who will partner Fabregas?  This is the first time in a long time that a midfield slot has been this wide open, so I hope and expect to see some fierce competition amongst Diaby, Denilson, Ramsey, and even youngsters such as Lansbury, Cocquelin, Randall and Bischoff if he comes.  One of these players has to prove he’s good enough to nail that place, otherwise Wenger will buy.

In the end, this is one of the least troubling issues precisely because it’s the most important.  Wenger has no option but to find a solution.  I don’t know who will get the slot, but I have no doubt that whoever it is will be good enough.

2. How good is Samir Nasri? And what kind of a player will he be when he settles in? Most players adapt their style in some way or undergo some kind of transformation after Wenger becomes their boss, making it hard to predict a new signing’s impact based on his past performances. Nasri will be put on one side of the midfield, wound up and let go – and I don’t have any kind of clue what will happen next.  My guess is a Hleb-like settling-in period where moves break down and passes go astray.  My hope is that he’s a big bag of awesome.

3. How good is Carlos Vela?  Although not at Arsenal, he’s been trained up the Wenger way as a striker who can play on the left or right; so unlike Nasri we know what he’s all about. He has the potential to be as good as Torres. He gave Sergio Ramos a lesson when he took on Real Madrid single-handed. He’s hungry. He could be a 20-goal winger or a 30-goal forward. Or he could discover that things are harder in the Premiership than he thought.

4. How lucky are we going to be with injuries? If RvP stays fit, he’s deadly and could be top scorer in the league this year. If we keep everyone else healthy and get Rosicky and Eduardo back before Christmas, then we have a deep pool of talent.

5. Have we really learned from last season how not to choke? Can our attack-minded side learn how to defend when we face the other 3 or 4 teams who can take the ball off us?  Has Gallas put his mental weakness behind him?  Can Wenger instill the discipline and win-ethic required to close out the championship?  OK so that’s four questions, but they’re all related.  Steve Cram once said that at the start of each 1500 metres, there are ten guys who think they will win, and one guy who knows he will. We have to be that guy.

We’ll start strongly like last season, we’ll be in the top two at Christmas and then we’ll see what happens.  Overall, the squad has more than enough raw talent to win.  Whether we have the balance or the killer instinct remains to be seen, but I’m optimistic that we’ll find both.

An optimist is someone who believes the future is not yet decided, and I can’t wait to watch this young Arsenal side decide it for themselves.